The Math and Myth of Confidence

What are the chances?

By Joseph Mazur Read by Tim Andrés Pabon Historical / Nonfiction / Philosophy / Science English, Unabridged 7h 18m Sell Sheet
Format Release Date List Price Your Price ISBN
1 MP3 CDs March 21, 2017 $19.99 $19.99 9781520071688 Add to Cart
6 Audio CDs March 21, 2017 $24.99 $14.99 9781520071671 Add to Cart
							This is the question we ask ourselves when we encounter the strangest and most seemingly impossible coincidences, like winning the lottery four times or Lincoln's dreams foreshadowing his own assassination. But when we look at coincidences mathematically, the odds are a lot better than any of us would have thought. In Fluke, mathematician Joseph Mazur takes a look at the seemingly improbable, taking us on a tour of the mathematical concepts of probability - such as the law of large numbers and the birthday paradox - and then combines these concepts with lively anecdotes of flukes from around the world, revealing that, if there is any likelihood that something could happen-no matter how small-it is bound to happen to someone at some time.

"Mazur's thoughtful tour reveals the explanatory power of probability theory in the larger world." - Publishers Weekly

"Mazur takes what could be difficult, abstruse subjects-probability and statistics-and makes them entertaining. The author draws examples and illustrations from a variety of fields-law enforcement, economics, the sciences-and, when he unavoidably gets into some fairly complicated mathematical discussions, he explains his terms and remembers that, for the most part, his readers aren't mathematicians. An ideal book, then, for the lay reader who is curious about the nature of coincidence." - Booklist Online

"Well written, entertaining...an understandable introduction to probability for the layman." - MAA.org

"Mazur gently dashes icy water on our sense of wonder, patiently doing the math to explain multiple lottery winners, 'remarkable' accidental scientific discoveries and wrongheaded government policy." - Keith Blanchard, Wall Street Journal